US election heatmap: Unpacking Trump and Harris’s battle for the White House

Every election depends on campaigning, but maybe none more so than the US presidential election. A handful of so-called ‘swing states’ are pivotal to deciding the outcome – one that has been nail bitingly close in the past. 
In this new segment, updated every two weeks, we dive deeper into the candidates’ campaigns. 
Since September, Kamala Harris’s campaign stops have revealed a clear election tactic: to keep Pennsylvania blue.
The state has received more campaign visits than any other this month: all three by Ms Harris.

The state is vital for her: no Democrat has won the presidency without it since 1948. Polling in the state has been neck-and-neck, but this week, just as early voting begins in some key swing states, a small gap has appeared in her favour.

Michigan has also been in the spotlight, with two visits from Ms Harris and one from her Republican rival Donald Trump. Again, polling is incredibly close in the state, but Ms Harris is ahead by just one point.

Neighbouring Wisconsin has also been visited by Trump, and it is one of the swing states where he has potentially gained ground. During his campaign event in Mosinee, he railed against immigration, crime and inflation – all issues popular with the state’s predominately white, blue-collar community.

Outside the Great Lake States, Trump and his running mate JD Vance have paid particular attention to the Sunbelt States of Arizona and Nevada – notably Ms Harris hasn’t been seen here since early August.

Trump will see Arizona as vital to a potential victory, but it is currently far too close to call if his campaign there, which is focused on immigration, is having the desired impact. According to a Redfield-Telegraph poll, amongst those voters who view immigration as the most important issue, Trump currently leads Ms Harris by 89 per cent to 10 per cent.

During his visit to Tucson, which in 2023 was the busiest corridor for illegal crossings on the Mexican border, Trump talked about almost nothing else.

Mr Vance appears to have played a smaller role on the campaign trail than Trump, with just four major events since the start of the month. In August, sixteen events were recorded. However, the vice presidential candidate has remained popular on the airwaves.

The opposite is true for Ms Harris’s running mate Tim Walz. Since 2 September, he’s attended 14 campaign events across the country – more than Trump and Mr Vance combined.

On the virtual campaign trail, Trump’s ad spending has increased considerably in recent weeks, from only $2.5 million to $7.7 million in the first three weeks of September.

He still remains nowhere near the spending levels of Ms Harris, currently at $54m, but the increase points to a change in strategy online.

Instead of marketing his rallies and campaign events, Trump is increasingly using his ads to ask for donations.

Pennsylvania is still being targeted by both candidates. But the Harris campaign seems to have moved some more focus to Michigan, with a visit this week. The State was considered part of the “blue wall” up until the 2016 election when Trump won it along with Wisconsin.

The vice presidential candidates continue to target the “safe” states in order to gain donations. Their content is a lot more personal, consisting of videos and selfies. The issues are quickly summed up and followed by a plea for financial support.

Overall, Ms Harris has raised more money than Trump since she became the Democratic candidate. She also receives a greater number of donations per day, with a peak on the day she became the presumptive candidate.

In the swing states, it’s a different story. In dollar terms, Trump is raising more than Ms Harris in Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada. In terms of individual donations, Trump has received more than twice as many as Ms Harris in four out of seven swing states. This suggests that Trump has a lot of grassroot support whereas Ms Harris is dependent on fewer, but wealthier backers.

This article will be updated every two weeks with the latest information.